27.11.2002 - Launch of PwC Technology Forecast 2002-2004

As always, the Technology Forecast provides anauthoritative overview of the major areas of IT and forecastssignificant developments in these areas over the next number ofyears. It highlights the advances that are taking place in ICTs inresponse to the increasing demands of users. And these advances arealways very welcome.

Technology and the User

In the past, though the ultimate goal of technology was to servethe user, the user wasn't always at the centre. From now on, bothhere and in Europe, governments are building their policies aroundusers as citizens, so that technology really appeals to them. TheIrish Government is very conscious of the need to focus on thecitizen rather than on the technology. One of my objectives inGovernment is to ensure that all citizens can reap the benefits ofmodern technologies. This includes everyone from the multi-nationalbusiness to the sole trader, from the university lecturer to thehousewife.

In order to do this, it is vitally important that thesetechnologies are continually made relevant to everyday life - foreveryone. When people interact with technology, they are lookingfor content, services and applications that they enjoy and, thatsimplify and improve their lives.

Technology should liberate people, not build barriers - itshould do what people need it to do not what is technicallypossible. The challenge for I.T. people is to make it simple touse. This really needs to happen, if as the Forecastpredicts, I.T. will become invisible because it will be such a partof the fabric of daily life.

However, of all the aspects of internet computing examined inthe Forecast, 'ubiquitous computing' is the furthest awayfrom realisation. This can be explained perhaps in part bytechnology and in part by people's expectations. Technology isautomating and transforming the services offered to and demanded bycitizens'. Technology is good at taking the complexity out ofservice delivery - at making the experience easier and morerewarding.

However, citizens are not yet seeking out or demandingcompletely new services that only ubiquitous computing can offer.They need to be made aware of, and consulted about how technologycan benefit them. However, today's infrastructure for networkingand communication does not support this model of pervasivecomputing very well.

eBusiness

One of the reassuring predictions I found in theForecast was that our use of the internet in the futurewill result from the coming together of several developments thatare already underway. The idea that the future will not be thatdissimilar from the present is comforting or is it!  

One such development already underway is 'grid computing'. Theidea that 'grid computing' will eventually be available toenterprises, opens up a vast range of opportunities for businesses.It will enable businesses to access computing power and resourceswith the same ease in which they access electrical power today. Itwill mean computing power when you want it, where you want it, andat the speed you want it. It will mean a competitive advantage byway of reduced costs for managing and maintaining I.T.infrastructure.

This future development can only further eBusiness and make iteven  more of a reality - particularly in the global context.The eBusiness performance of the Irish Enterprise sector over thenext five to 10 years will be a crucial determinant of Ireland'seconomic fortunes in the new global knowledge economy. This isparticularly true as Ireland is one of the most globalisedeconomies in the world.

There is a growing realisation, not just in Government, but inbusiness and in society generally, that we need to look atdeveloping Ireland as a 'knowledge economy' - an economy which isbased on the manufacture and export of knowledge-based products andservices. 

This is not a totally new economy.  It is a development ofwhat many of us already do but a development in a new context ofubiquitous connectivity and computing power, which createsopportunities for new business models, new markets and new ways ofcreating the wealth that will sustain us into the future. 

That challenge faces all of us in all sectors. For Government,we have to create the conditions - or at least facilitate thecreation of the conditions - to do business in a new way; to leadby example, to stimulate participation. For the private sector -companies large and small - it means harnessing the power oftechnology to transact business in a new way; to create highervalue; to open up new markets; and to exploit our skills andexpertise so that we can be leaders rather than followers.

eGovernment

In terms of leading by example, the Government are committed toa programme of eGovernment centred around creating electronicaccess to information and services using the public servicesbroker. The further development of eGovernment will involveexploring how technology can improve the manner in which we developpolicies by creating a new collaborative environment. 

The e-Cabinet project, currently under way in the Department ofthe Taoiseach, is the flagship project for the development of newpolicy-processing mechanisms. While the e-Cabinet project is tofacilitate on-line collaboration at Ministerial level, we will bepursuing the extension of this new electronic environment toDepartments and agencies.  

Perhaps the greatest potential for the use of technologies inGovernment is in the area of administration and administrativeprocesses - where it is now possible to streamline common servicesand look to new models of centralisation and decentralisation likethose which we see in the private sector and, in particular, in thelarge multi-national corporations. 

The public service has evolved over decades into autonomousentities and a culture of autonomy in terms of management andprocedure which may not now be the most suitable model in this newcontext of connectivity and collaboration. We now have anopportunity, if not an obligation, to take a new and radical lookat, not just the way the public services works, but at what isactually does in the discharge of its obligation to 'do right bythe citizen'.  It will mean that more and more of us will haveto ask ourselves searching questions about our roles,responsibilities and obligations. 

Electronically enabling the public service has the potential todramatically impact on the effectiveness and efficiency ofGovernment in a way that it was not even possible to contemplatejust a few years ago. And, in the current climate of demands forreductions in public expenditure, it makes all the more sense tocritically examine and appraise the way Government is working atall levels.  Not only does eGovernment contribute to theefficiency of our public services but it can also contribute to thecompetitiveness of our economy.  

Conclusion

I would like to congratulate PwC's Global Technology Centre, whoresearched and produced this widely respectedForecast.  As with PwC's Technology Forecasts overthe past 14 years, I am sure that this Forecast will be aninvaluable information source for all of those interested in I.T.and its future.

Four Seasons Hotel, Ballsbridge, Dublin 4